Large banks are planning for a slowdown in both unsecured lending and mortgages in 2024. How will this affect their profits in 2024? Will the spain telegram data average level you mentioned — 1.7–1.8 trillion rubles — be exceeded or not?
— We expect, so far as an estimate
that the banking sector’s profit next year will be slightly more than 2 trillion rubles. Due to high rates, their margin may shrink slightly, especially since high rates are more quickly transferred to deposits than to borrowers and creditors. But economic activity is still developing, positive growth rates are observed, they (banks. — RBC) will have the opportunity to earn a profit.
— Tightening the conditions of preferential mortgages is a decided issue. Could it become exotic next year? Or maybe all mortgages with such a level of rates?
— No, of course, mortgages will develop. According to our estimates, it will not be 35% [growth], as it was this year, but 7–12%. And we believe that a positive element from the slowdown in loan growth will be that there will be less pressure on the growth of apartment prices. Because apartment prices have also grown significantly.
Preferential mortgages will not be exotic
We assume that the mass preferential mortgage program, non-targeted, will end in July, but targeted mortgages, including family mortgages, will remain. This is a popular mortgage. And family mortgages are now approximately the same station and seat location in volume as mass preferential mortgages. Therefore, preferential mortgages will remain and, of course, will not be as exotic as before 2020. Plus, market mortgages will ao lists also develop. Yes, the pace has slowed down, but market mortgages are developing.